Insights

There will be little market and macro implications from the US intervention in Venezuela. Fade away any near-term moves in global oil markets. However, Colombian and Peruvian assets will benefit from lower political risk premiums. We are upgrading Colombian equities and fixed income to overweig...

From steepening to flattening. As the BoJ continues to tighten in 2026, we show why curve flatteners are finally the right trade....

We have been surprised that consumption has held up well despite anemic payrolls growth. This brief considers ways that consumption might continue to beat our base-case expectations....

The US removal of Venezuela's Maduro does not presage an invasion of Greenland. But it does justify a lingering risk of conflict with Iran....

Our outlook for Fed policy in 2026....

In trying to dispel client concerns that the US would get involved in another “forever war” akin to Iraq, we posited in a recent missive that President Trump’s designs on Venezuela were similar to the 1983 invasion of Grenada. A way to flex American muscle while, at the same time, reducing US global...

MacroQuant has downgraded equities to underweight, favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is still bullish on gold....

Late December is time for relaxation and reflection. We sincerely hope that all our clients and friends have had the time to defragment their brains over the past two weeks. The geomacro Vol is unlikely to let up in 2026. We will all need stamina and clarity for what lies ahead. ...

For investors, there are two ways to think of President Trump’s bellicose rhetoric and military positioning vis-à-vis Venezuela...