Insights

Lots of data out today, most of which point to a global economy that is cooling but not (yet) freezing....

Employment Data Point To Dovish Policy Surprises In 2026...

Following this weekend's election, we reiterate an overweight stance across Chilean risk assets relative to EM benchmarks and advise buying local currency government bonds (currency unhedged)....

The US is ripe for a third major political party, but the two-party system will probably prevail in the 2028 election. The macro context will determine whether the US elects a left-wing populist. ...

Weak, narrowly concentrated job growth in fields that pay poorly bodes ill for the economy, but we enter 2026 recommending benchmark allocations because we are wary of the potential for an AI-driven meltup. Investors should bide their time before turning defensive....

2026 will see geopolitical risk move sideways globally as the US pursues a ceasefire in the proxy war with Russia and a tariff truce with China ahead of midterm elections that will produce gridlock....

This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets. We will also ...

The SNB remains on hold, but the bar for further easing is falling quickly – even as Switzerland secures a breakthrough trade deal with the US. With CHF now pressing against a policy ceiling, the franc looks increasingly attractive as a funding currency....

Risk assets in EM/China and cyclical commodities will sell off in H1 2026. A shift toward aggressive policy stimulus in China and a clear improvement in global manufacturing are needed to produce durable rallies in EM/China risk assets and the prices of energy and industrial metals....

The bull versus bear battlelines are drawn for 2026: The friendliest Fed meets the most concentrated stock market rally ever. This last report of the year goes through the 10 key views for 2026 that emanate from this fascinating setup....