Insights

Bitcoin’s recent volatility masks a deeper story – the widest disconnect from traditional macro drivers since 2022. With sentiment now deeply negative and institutional demand still building, the conditions for a realignment with fundamentals are falling into place....

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2025....

The Kingdom faces a troika of global factors in the next 12-18 months: (1) US policy rates will be cut considerably; (2) the US dollar will depreciate significantly; and (3) crude prices will remain low.How should investors position themselves in this market?...

The high-frequency Joshi Rule confirms that the US labour market is holding up. Equity investors should regard 5-10 percent selloffs as tactical buying opportunities. Bond investors should stay underweight US duration. Plus, a new high-conviction trade is to go overweight the 30-year German bund ver...

In this report, we present an AI investment framework for long-term investors. We conclude that an “AI Winter” is likely to begin over the next one-to-three years. Investors should strategically favor value over growth stocks....

Commodity market analysis usually focuses heavily on supply-demand balances. Yet in this framework piece, we argue that reported balances are an overrated gauge of underlying commodity price trends. ...

We remain bullish on the alpha-generating potential of Vietnamese stocks over the medium and long term. But our negative outlook on global/EM beta makes us bearish on this bourse in absolute terms over the medium term....

Japanese financial assets will finally have unfettered access to outsized returns. This performance will come in fits and starts, but we are comfortable laying our cards down on buying the yen, and Japanese industrial stocks. ...

On purely macroeconomic terms, the US economy appears to be heading towards a recession. But the whole point of our framework – GeoMacro – is to forecast the interplay between politics, geopolitics, and macro. The White House is taking control of the Fed in 2026 and, together, they will look to re-l...

There is an old joke about the drunk who searches for his keys under the light post. When asked why he is looking for his keys there, he replies that “this is where the light is.” ...