Insights

Disparities between households and between companies’ earnings and equity performance are widening, but the overall status quo remains in place. We reiterate our neutral asset class recommendations while watching for early signs of whether activity might break out or break down....

This Special Report outlines the Fed’s balance sheet strategy and the rationale behind it. We also provide updated projections for the major asset and liability line items on the Fed’s balance sheet....

We examine past capex booms which turned into busts. Our analysis suggests that AI is following the same script as those ill-fated booms. ...

Should investors chase the copper rally or use the latest bout of strength as an opportunity to sell?We warn that weakening Chinese demand and shrinking global manufacturing will weigh on the metal’s price over a cyclical timeframe....

The greater risk to the world economy in 2026-27 is not that a recession triggers a market crash, but that a market crash triggers a recession. This is because a market crash will destroy the wealth that is funding the crucial marginal spending of 2.5 million excess American retirees. Plus, a new ta...

Our latest chartpack provides a comprehensive view across asset classes, highlighting current positioning, risks, and opportunities. Real Estate remains our highest conviction asset class. Private Credit will remain in the headlines amid stresses from 2020–2021 loan vintages. In Late-Stage Venture C...

What would “Old Man Partridge” say about the end of 2025? Risks are mounting everywhere one looks. The labor market is more than wobbly. The AI capex boom is a bubble, the front pages proclaim. And geopolitical tensions have been percolating throughout the year. The odds are that the venerable inves...

The trade war hit Canada’s economy hard, but the worst is over. In our latest update on Canada, we assess the aftermath of the trade shock, the new budget, and the effects of BoC easing. We outline what this means for duration, the Loonie, and Canadian stocks heading into 2026....

As hyperscalers expand global data center capacity, they are igniting a powerful industrial cycle. Capital Goods and Materials companies supplying turbines, grid components, cooling systems, and advanced connectivity materials for data center and energy infrastructure are emerging as key beneficiari...

The Nordic central banks are now aligned in pause mode, but their economies are diverging. With Swedish prospects improving and Norwegian headwinds mounting, we are turning overweight on Swedish equities and shorting NOK/SEK....