Insights

Brazil’s bleak macro outlook persists – rising debt, weak productivity, and political inertia. With 2026 elections looming, genuine reform seems unlikely, though Argentina’s bold turnaround could pressure Brasília to rethink its cycle of governability over growth....

Détente between China and the US is a big deal. Economic data continues to give the Fed reasons to cut. What is there to be worried about? Very little. But we chew on some bearish thoughts as we start thinking about 2026....

Yield-to-maturity remains the anchor of long-term bond return projections. Incorporating rolldown effects enhances accuracy. Our revamped “building-block” approach to fixed income capital market assumptions provides a solid, data-driven foundation for informed strategic asset allocation decisions....

Investor reaction to Meta’s GenAI is an admonition against overspending, rather than a sign of a fraying GenAI rally. Other hyperscalers’ investments are driven by buoyant demand and remain profitable. With valuations stretched and many of the positives priced in, market consolidation is likely. We ...

Fresh off a month of boning up on all things AI, we walk through a high-level Q&A discussing AI capex and how much the AI investing boom is really contributing to US growth....

We discuss which variables we are tracking to assess the risks to the bull market in the absence of government data. So far, we do not see any obvious red flags. Remain overweight on equities and fixed income....

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to pos...

MacroQuant is tactically overweight equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is bullish on gold and copper....

Falling oil prices are countering tariff-driven inflation which, along with a weakening labor market, is reinforcing a long duration stance. Brent crude broke below the $65/bbl support level held since June and WTI is now down 16% from a year ago. Falling oil prices are significant at this stage of ...

We expect the divergence between resilient growth and weakening employment to be resolved by lower growth estimates, supporting long duration and steepeners. Economic activity and employment usually move together in a circular relationship: spending drives income and jobs, with income driving subseq...