Insights

US GDP growth appears to have accelerated even as employment growth has faltered. We will make a final decision in early October when we publish our next Strategy Outlook, but most likely, we will cut our 12-month US recession probability to 40%-to-50% from 60% and turn tactically neutral on stocks,...

According to our latest client poll, most respondents are optimistic about the Generative AI's potential. Investors remain divided on whether current equity valuations reflect a bubble. Economic concerns continue to center on bond yields and the risk of stagflation, while relatively few clients anti...

In this report penned by BCA’s Global Investment Strategy team, our colleagues examines a wide range of strategies designed to capitalize on stock market anomalies. We incorporate many of these factors into our own model. Our colleagues found that while most of these factors have waned over time, th...

The Fed is mispriced for the rest of 2025. We explain why the dollar is poised to rebound and the trades to position for it. ...

We test a wide range of strategies designed to capitalize on stock market anomalies. While most have waned over time, they generally remain profitable, especially for small caps. We will be using a mixture of these strategies for our new PowerTrades service....

The Fed’s actions tell us that it has chosen to avoid a recession at the cost of moving its inflation goalposts to 3 percent. Thus begins the slippery slope to price instability. Long-term investors should underweight the dollar, own some gold, but better than gold is bitcoin. Plus, a new tactical t...

Median Fed unemployment rate projections are overly optimistic. The Fed will end up cutting more in 2026 than it currently anticipates....

China’s policy-driven constraints prevent the “destruction” part of the creative destruction process. Instead, they entrench overcapacity, deflation, and poor profitability. We are reluctant to chase the rally in Chinese stocks in absolute terms....

Private Markets are entering a new phase as TPA and Evergreen funds expand. Shifts in access, implementation, and market leadership will have important implications for institutions, Wealth Management, and future Private Equity returns....

Indonesia’s policy easing will boost domestic demand, but fuel inflation. Current account deficit will widen, and the rupiah will weaken. Stay short the rupiah and go underweight Indonesian stocks, domestic bonds, and sovereign credit in their respective EM portfolios....