Insights

In the Alpha report, we maintain our bullishness on the equity market. We are optimistic that the cash-fueled cycle will evolve into a leverage-driven one, with the AI capex cycle acting as the "bridge" between the two. Our view is easily falsifiable. If the 10-year yield starts moving against ...

Monetary policy surprises shape curve trade returns. We show where steepeners and flatteners offer the best risk-reward in today’s market....

The US overconsumes and underproduces. China overproduces and underconsumes. There are early signs that this decades-old imbalance has peaked and is beginning to reverse. Upgrade the CNY to overweight....

Political instability will persist in France as PM François Bayrou loses the confidence vote. The nomination of a new PM will not end the country’s political paralysis and will further fuel fiscal fears. Investors should remain underweight French OAT. French equities, especially French banks, should...

MacroQuant sees downside risks to stocks over a long-term horizon but is not yet saying that we are at imminent risk of an equity bear market....

Trump, the Fed, the Russo-China bloc, Venezuela, and France are all seeing developments that imply some contrarian tactical views: Long USD, overweight US versus Europe, overweight Europe versus China, and short oil. ...

We see two risks that could spoil the rally in US risk assets: (1) a tariff-driven stagflation, and (2) a US Treasury tantrum. Our negative view on EM risk assets is primarily driven by the outlook for global trade, which is set to shrink in Q4 this year....

Today’s PCE report was broadly in line with expectations. Real consumer spending rebounded in July but remains only 0.3% above where it was in December....

Commercial indices’ limitations have made Value a fertile ground for stock pickers. Our Composite Value model has shown promise in circumventing these flaws and capturing alpha....

We revamp several of our methodologies in this edition of our return assumptions. We estimate that a US 60/40 portfolio will return 6.1% over the next 10 years. This is slightly below the return assumptions for US pension funds. Investors can obtain better returns by diversifying internationally and...