Insights

The fact that the yellow metal’s rally has defied headwinds from key cyclical drivers suggests that the bull market is structural, not cyclical. Buy gold and gold mining stocks in absolute and relative terms....

The outlook for European equities is becoming more appealing relative to US equities. Many structural headwinds are fading in Europe, and valuations remain historically cheap. Investors should position accordingly to benefit from the region’s cyclical rerating....

Colombian markets will be torn between expectations of future orthodox policies and the reality of a worsening macro backdrop in the next 12 months. To balance risks, we are upgrading Colombian equities, local bonds, and sovereign credit from underweight to neutral versus their respective EM benchma...

In a widely anticipated move, the RBA resumed cutting rates. However, with housing, consumption, and PMIs improving, we see little scope for the RBA to ease beyond market expectations....

This morning’s CPI report marginally tips the scales in favor of a September rate cut....

This is the first time that our chartpack does not include any charts on the trade war. Did we just curse our equity overweight? Right as the inflation print comes out and causes agita to the market? Sure, maybe. The tactical ins and outs are not that interesting to us. Far more interesting is ...

Despite widespread investor optimism Brazil’s currency outlook is challenged by a toxic mix of poor external, fiscal, and macro fundamentals. Expect BRL to underperform most EM peers. ...

Asset prices reflect expectations—but US Office Real Estate expectations are too pessimistic. We present the case for why strong fundamentals will drive performance, despite macro risks....

Data received since we began reassessing our bearish stance supported our notion that the economy is not as strong as the investor consensus perceives. But the softness will likely have to intensify in July and August to preserve our defensive recommendations....

US tariffs will not derail the low-inflation economic recovery underway in the Euro Area. Investors should overweight European equities, focusing on parts of the market more insulated from tariffs....