Insights

Over the first half of 2025, AI capex outpaced both consumption and all other investments in its contribution to US growth. Like all other capex cycles this one will end in tears. However, the indicators we track suggest that AI capex can continue supporting growth and markets for now. Remain Neutra...

In Section II, Jonathan reviews the US fiscal outlook in the wake of the passage of the OBBBA....

In Section I, Doug weighs the recent reduction in trade uncertainty against the clear signs of labor market and consumer weakness. In Section II, Jonathan reviews the US fiscal outlook in the wake of the passage of the OBBBA....

MacroQuant is recommending that equity investors keep their finger near the eject button but avoid pressing it for now. The model is warming up to the dollar again and sees scope for oil prices to rise....

The yen’s discount, surplus, and rising real rates line up for a multi-quarter surge. Find out why EUR/JPY is the first short and when USD/JPY follows....

Microsoft has gone up in a worryingly near-perfect straight line with dimension 1.098. Take August off before making a big commitment to stocks. Plus: a new tactical trade is to go long USD/HUF....

The Fed will keep rates on hold until the unemployment rate forces its hand....

The Bank of Canada continues to hold its policy rate amid trade uncertainty and shows little concern about the potential economic damage from tariffs. We judge the risks differently and view a bet on more rate cuts this year as attractive....

Using stock-level data for MSCI ACWI country indices going back to 1984 for Developed markets and 1988 for Emerging markets, we find that market concentration adds little predictive power for long term forward returns. Whatever predictive power it has disappears once we include traditional metrics l...

Russia poses an immediate risk to global financial markets, and then perhaps a buying opportunity. Trump is pivoting to ceasefires and trade deals, but Russia could trigger a new tariff shock first....