Insights

The pace of global political change is not unprecedented, but it is accelerating, driven by demographic forces as well as failures of conventional military deterrence. ...

In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries....

We will abandon our recession call if US economic data show clear signs of stabilization over the summer months. For now, that has not happened. Maintain a modest underweight to stocks but look to get more defensive if MacroQuant’s equity z-score falls below -1....

Economic growth and rapid expansions do not always translate into higher EPS and shareholder returns. One of the key reasons is dilution. We offer a typology of dilution: (1) “offensive”, (2) “defensive”, (3) corporate governance-linked, and (4) idiosyncratic cases....

Saudi Arabia’s middling position in our FDI Attractiveness Index reflects closed trade channels and patchy infrastructure that weigh on an otherwise promising investment story. Addressing those gaps could significantly bolster the Kingdom’s appeal as an FDI host....

Upward pressure on Japan’s real bond yield justifies overweighting the yen and underweighting overvalued tech. Plus: two new tactical trades are long JPY/EUR and short platinum....

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2025....

We have thrown caution to the wind and gone overweight equities. Why? Three reasons: the Fed is under immense political pressure to pivot, USD has depreciated, and inflation is in check. It is going to be a very difficult job for Fed Chair Powell to ignore the downside risks to both inflation and gr...

An update on the key themes and views that will shape commodity markets through the remainder of 2025. ...

Markets are pricing a return to a neutral policy stance for the major central banks within the next 12 months. However, recession risks still loom amid slowing growth. We unpack where recession risks are underappreciated and what it means for bond positioning....