Insights

Fiscal policy, not tariffs, is now driving markets as Congress advances the One Big Beautiful Bill. The Senate cannot afford to remove the spending cuts in the bill, as they risk sparking a bond market riot. Even with this more modest bill, US interest rates are already pressuring housing and labor ...

After considering some of the most common bullish arguments, we stand by our recession view and reiterate our defensive asset allocation recommendations....

MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash....

MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash....

This week, our three screeners explore opportunities in: Chinese tourism, European telecoms, and US health care stocks. ...

Private Credit return expectations edge lower. Middle Market Direct Lending remains attractive, rivaling Middle Market Buyouts....

In Section I, Doug warns that US trade policy may produce a considerably worse outcome than investors currently expect. The administration’s apparent 10% tariff baseline is likely to be negative for the US economy and particularly the small business sector. Investors should remain defensively positi...

In Section II, Jonathan discusses the arguments in favor and against the view that US inflation will be structurally elevated over the longer term. Our base case view remains that US inflation will not be significantly above 2%, but this view may change if US tariffs are put in place permanently and...

Global currency markets have entered a new era. This implies that the framework for analyzing exchange rates must also change. We introduce a new framework for analyzing EM currencies and classify them into resilient and vulnerable categories. Finally, we are adding more EM ...