Latest from BCA Research
AI excels at IQ but fails miserably at EQ. Hence, AI will obsolete any job that relies on IQ, including many graduate-level jobs. But high-EQ humans will be in high demand to pair up with AI, and many of these jobs will be middle income jobs. We…
The odds of a near-term US-Iran deal have gone up slightly, but the odds of a Russian provocation that divides NATO have also gone up.
In Romania, large fiscal and current account deficits, high inflation, negative real rates, an overvalued exchange rate, and deteriorating growth point to budding currency devaluation. Investors should short the Romanian currency versus the euro…
Tech, and increasingly the market, is moving from a cash-return regime to a reinvestment regime. After the GFC, investors rewarded companies that returned cash to investors. In the AI cycle, they are rewarding companies that put that cash back to…
In Private Markets, yesterday’s winners often see outperformance fade. Top-quartile managers often regress toward the median as fund series mature. For investors evaluating the next Real Estate or Private Equity manager: Bias toward underweighting…
I spent the last week in London, speaking to a wide array of BCA Research clients. Throughout the early part of the week, well connected friends and sources in the Middle East warned me that a renewed US attack on Iran was imminent (by Friday, May…
Against the earnings-versus-everything-else market backdrop, stellar earnings are easily outweighing elevated oil prices, rising yields and the increased probability that the Fed may hike rates before the year is out. US allocators should remain…
Europe is sliding from stagflation toward recession as prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz weaken growth, labor markets, and supply chains while keeping inflation elevated. Even if a US-Iran deal is reached, limited fiscal support and…
AI could be as transformative as the Agricultural or Industrial Revolutions. However, the fact that you are reading these words at the dawn of the AI age hints at a darker possibility, which is that AI will lead to humanity's demise. Fortunately,…
US stocks and bonds are on a collision course. Only a meaningful equity selloff is likely to pull bond yields considerably lower. Global equity risk-reward looks poor. The dollar will stay firm near term, but its medium- and long-term outlook…