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Economic Growth

A Sweet Spot For US Growth
The US economy has remained resilient this year despite slowdown fears tied to geopolitical tensions. US economic data has surprised positively since the start of the year. The Iran war has weighed on business and consumer confidence, but has had little…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
2 days ago
China’s Uneven Policy Pivot
China’s weakening economy is likely to bring more fiscal support in H2, but the benefits will be concentrated and equity volatility is set to rise. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jing Sima, Chief China Strategist. Jing looks at China’s outlook for the rest…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
South Africa’s Stagflationary Tilt

South Africa’s ambitious reform agenda will take time to bear fruit. Meanwhile, the country faces a stagflationary squeeze as inflation rises while growth slows. South African stocks, bonds, and currency are all vulnerable.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
The ECB Tightens Into Weakness
The ECB hiked as expected, but further tightening would be a mistake that ultimately supports European bonds. The policy rate was raised by 25 bps to 2.25%, as expected. The ECB also revised its inflation forecasts higher and its growth forecasts lower. It…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
The Ireland Noise
Ireland is making the Euro Area look weaker than it is. The bloc reportedly contracted 0.2% in Q1 2026, but stripping out Ireland would have shown a 0.3% expansion. That reversal can be traced back to a dramatic downward revision in Irish GDP, from -2% to…
Daily Insights by Eugenia Pan
Beige Book: Concentrated Growth With Rising Cost Pressure
The Beige Book reinforces a slight-to-moderate growth backdrop with widening consumer stress, stronger manufacturing, and sticky cost pressures. Latest comments provide a new angle into recent developments and the sentiment of economic agents in the face of…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
Canada’s Growth Shock
Canada’s growth backdrop has weakened sharply. Q1 GDP fell 0.1% on a quarterly annualized basis, missing expectations for 1.5% growth, after Q4 was revised down to a 1% contraction. The drag is broadening. Business capital investment fell 0.7% q/q, its…
Daily Insights by Rajeeb Pramanik
Seven Reasons Why The Hormuz Crisis Has Yet To Cause The Global Economy To Crash

The global economy has weathered the oil shock reasonably well so far. However, the risk of a recession will increase meaningfully if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into June.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Unparalleled Divergences

Global trade has held up despite US non-AI import volumes contracting by 25% over the past 12 months. The strength in global trade has concentrated in two areas: (1) imports of AI-related hardware and (2) developing countries’ imports, especially from China. Will these continue?

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
The Big Beautiful Ceasefire Meets The Aya-Toll-Ahs

The relief rally in stocks can continue a while longer. However, much can still go wrong. As such, we are retaining a 12-month underweight to stocks but are moving to neutral on a short-term tactical horizon.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin

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