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Global

Price Pressures Have Not Fully Abated
Both supply- and demand-side forces contributed to the inflation surge in 2021/2022. According to the San Francisco Fed’s estimates, the contribution of demand-side forces to annual core PCE inflation jumped from -0.09 percentage points (pp) in February 2021…
Daily Insights
A Beacon Of Optimism In Sweden?
Swedish economic data is usually good at sniffing out the outlook for global growth. Looking at a broad swath of indicators, from domestic conditions to barometers of external demand, our colleagues from BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment…
Daily Insights
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A Tug Of War

Despite a couple of rate cuts in H2 2024, borrowing costs will remain elevated in real terms amid lower inflation in the US and Europe. This and tightening fiscal policy will hinder domestic demand in advanced economies. Domestic demand in China and EM ex-China will remain very tepid, with risks skewed to the downside.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
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What Is Sweden Telling Us About The Global Cycle?
Special Report

In this joint Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment Strategy Special Report, we assess economic activity in Sweden, a highly cyclical and trade-oriented economy, and its implications for the global growth outlook.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Melanie Kermadjian, Chester Ntonifor
Are Taiwanese Export Orders Sending A Warning?
The 10.4% contraction in Taiwanese export orders for February delivered a negative surprise to expectations that the pace of expansion would slow from 1.9% y/y to 1.2% y/y. However, investors should not read too deeply into this weaker-than-anticipated…
Daily Insights
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Chatting With A Chatbot: A Year Later (Part I)
Special Report

GAI technology has made tremendous gains over the past year. It has advanced from being a mere “curiosity” to becoming an everyday helper. While the promise of GAI is enormous, its effects are still limited: Companies are still struggling with monetization while productivity improvement is still at least a year away. In terms of evolution, the focus is shifting away from “picks and shovels” infrastructure companies toward model and application developers.

US Equity Strategy, Geopolitical Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Disappointing Singapore NODX Hides Positive Dynamics
Singapore non-oil exports (NODX) largely disappointed in February, contracting by 4.8% m/m following a 2.3% m/m expansion in January, and falling below expectations of a milder 0.5% m/m decline. In a similar vein, the 0.1% y/y decline in February fell below…
Daily Insights
Is Dr. Copper Sensing A Chinese Recovery?
In a recent Insight we highlighted that the selloff in the price of iron ore – which is down 25.4% year-to-date – is sending a pessimistic signal on China’s economy, suggesting that the current rally in Chinese stocks is unlikely to persist over a cyclical…
Daily Insights
A Material Rally?
As we highlighted in a recent Insight, dynamics have shifted beneath the surface of the S&P 500. The Materials sector has been rallying sharply since the end of January, gaining 9.9% over this period and taking the top spot among the 11 sectors. This…
Daily Insights
The Winner Of The Inflation Category Is…
BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service ranks the major economies by their economic and financial performance under various categories. In the inflation category, the surprising top award goes to Italy, a country which historically has tended to have…
Daily Insights

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