Iran
The Middle East returned to the headlines over the weekend, and any normalization of Hormuz shipping now looks delayed. President Trump called Iran’s response to the US peace proposal “totally unacceptable.” Our Geopolitical strategists still see Iran as…
Our clients are split on whether Brent will be below $100 in 6 months. In last week's poll, we asked where Brent crude will trade in 6 months. 43% of BCA clients expect sub-$100/bbl prices, while 32% see Brent in the $120–$150 range, 14% in $100–$120,…
The Hormuz crisis is likely to disrupt urea markets; trade routes and production capacity can only adjust slowly and at meaningful cost. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jose Yanes, analyst in our GeoMacro team. In the Hormuz crisis, urea sits…
The surprisingly solid ceasefire between Iran, the US, Israel, and GCC countries broke on May 4 with a ballistic missile and drone attack against the UAE. According to reports, UAE defense forces intercepted 12 ballistic missiles, three cruise missiles, and four drones, launched by Iran.
The Iran conflict appears to be heating up again, which would make the market backdrop less supportive for equities. President Trump said the US would escort neutral ships through Hormuz, but Monday also brought rumors of a ship being hit and UAE ports being…
The UAE’s exit from OPEC is unlikely to impact oil markets in 2026. Over the longer term, however, the emergence of an “anti-OPEC club” of producers favoring unconstrained oil output growth would create a headwind to crude prices and weaken the price floor that OPEC seeks to defend.
Iran has pushed its “twist the knife” strategy further and for longer than expected, and the US now appears ready to renew the assault. Iran kept Hormuz shut even after President Trump offered negotiations. The aim is to drag out talks while keeping oil…
The Iran war is likely to re-escalate later this year even if shipping somehow resumes in the very near term — and yet an early reopening is looking less likely.
Our Commodity strategists expect natural gas prices to stay elevated through 2026, with a structural shift into oversupply coming from 2028 onward. The Strait of Hormuz disruption remains the binding constraint on Persian Gulf LNG exports, and even a May…
US-Iran talks remain in the air, but even a short-term deal would not resolve the deeper strategic conflict. Planned in-person negotiations were canceled over the weekend, but news emerged of a new Iranian proposal shared with the US. The reported proposal…