Japanese Yen
Our clients are modestly long the JPY. In this week's poll, 40% of BCA clients report long positioning, 33% neutral, and 27% short. LinkedIn respondents show a similar tilt, while X leans more defensive. Outright shorts are a minority on all three platforms,…
Joint US and Japanese intervention can curb JPY weakness temporarily, but a durable turn still requires narrower rate differentials. Our Chart Of The Week comes from FX Strategist Artem Sakhbiev. The joint MoF and US Treasury intervention signals that…
MoF and the US Treasury stepped in together to defend the yen, but even joint intervention cannot reset the fundamentals still weighing on the currency. Washington's pursuit of its own incentives, meanwhile, offers another glimpse of a more activist US Treasury.
The JPY’s decline reflects rising inflation expectations rather than fiscal risk, and is likely to persist until the BoJ turns more hawkish. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief FICC Strategist. Mathieu examines the JPY’s decoupling from…
A more aggressive BoJ hiking stance is needed to stabilize the JPY. Recent price action has fueled speculation that Japanese officials now see yen weakness as an inflation risk, and that the BoJ may be open to accelerate the pace of hiking. Verbal…
USD/JPY has reached its highest level since 1986, and markets are increasingly pricing the risk that the BoJ stays behind the curve. Verbal intervention from the BoJ and the US Treasury has so far proved ineffective. The recent bear steepening of the JGB…
The dollar has had a strong run but its key supports from Fed repricing, positioning, and terms of trade are starting to fade. We close our tactical long USD positions and turn to short USD/JPY, where intervention risk makes yen shorts look increasingly dangerous.
Japan’s export outlook remains favorable, but domestic weakness warrants tactical caution on equities. A sharp decline in the real effective exchange rate and continued growth in AI infrastructure spending are supporting exports. Japan’s share of exports to…
MoF FX intervention has drawn a line at 160, triggering a sharp yen squeeze. But with near-term fundamentals still stacked against the currency, USD/JPY remains poised to retest the highs before any durable turn.
Japan’s likely intervention reinforces 160 in USD/JPY as a near-term ceiling, but it does not change the broader macro backdrop. Estimates suggest Japan intervened overnight with around $35 billion. The move reinforces the 160 level in USD/JPY as a clear line…