Insights

We are pleased to introduce our new Quarterly Investment Outlook, a joint publication bringing together the European Investment Strategy (EIS), Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS), and Foreign Exchange Strategy teams. The main takeaway of the current edition is that investors should not add ris...

Over the past month, oil market participants have scrambled to fill the gap in global oil supply caused by the Strait of Hormuz’s closure. While these efforts have been impressive, the scale of the disruption means they are ultimately insufficient. Upside pressures will continue to dominate energy p...

Overstretched foreign inflows into Brazilian markets will reverse, while soaring oil prices will not benefit Brazil in the near term. Avoid the country’s risk assets and the BRL, and stay underweight Brazilian equities and fixed income relative to EM. We also recommend paying 10-year Brazilian swap ...

We continue to expect the S&P 500 to gain ground in 2026, driven by revenue growth, with limited scope for margin or multiple expansion.  With cyclical upside tilted toward the investment side of the economy, we favor sectors with high-quality, revenue-driven earnings growth, leverage capex...

One month into the Iranian conflict, we take stock of how markets have moved so far and how some of the big open questions might influence them going forward. A long opportunity may be developing at the long end of the Treasury curve....

The current macro environment is a toxic brew of many of the same vulnerabilities that haunted the global economy in the lead-up to past recessions: Rising oil prices, an unsustainable tech capex boom, elevated equity valuations, excessively high homes prices, and brewing stresses in private credit ...

Indonesian rupiah will continue to plunge, and its local-currency bond yields will rise materially. Investors should short domestic bonds, currency unhedged....

In Section II, Jonathan examines the humanoid robot segment of the emerging physical AI landscape, concluding that humanoid robots are a potential but not yet imminent investment theme....

In Section I, Doug argues that investors should maintain mildly defensive positioning while awaiting the restoration of normalized shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz. In Section II, Jonathan examines the humanoid robot segment of the emerging physical AI landscape, concluding that humanoid ...

The Iran war may not deescalate in the near term, and if it does, it will likely reescalate later this year, suggesting investors should take a cyclically defensive outlook....