Insights
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Report
President Trump referred to the US-Venezuela agreement as the “biggest oil deal in world history.” However, oil production growth constraints limit its near-term impact on global crude markets. Instead, Middle East developments will continue to dominate oil’s trajectory over the coming months. ...
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Report
Next week’s CPI and PPI reports will be much more important determinants of the near-term Fed policy path than this morning’s employment report. However, if the trend of labor market tightening continues through year-end, it could lead to a re-acceleration of wage growth in 2027....
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Report
High-profile adoptions of the Total Portfolio Approach (TPA) and the often-cited outperformance of TPA funds have generated FOMO among funds following an SAA framework. Buzzwords and vague rulesets frustrate anyone trying to learn more. We combed through the TPA literature, built practical examples,...
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Report
Markets have become obsessed with the rise of global long-dated yields. To some extent, we agree with the concern. Bonds are trading on "vibes," alarmed by the incoherent US geopolitical policy. Oil prices are obviously the conduit between that policy and the markets. On the other hand, growth is al...
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Report
Investors overestimate the threat current interest rate levels pose to both equities and the economy. Despite a rising long end, the gap between high-yield borrowing costs and both nominal growth and corporate profits is at five-year lows and falling. Remain overweight equities. Within Fixed Income,...
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Webcast Replay
Mathieu Savary, Matt Gertken, and Roukaya Ibrahim discussed:
- Markets have seen a series of supply shocks in recent years, from Covid to Ukraine to tariffs to the Iran war.
- How will these shocks evolve going forward? Should investors care more about new tariffs or the Strait of Hormuz?
- How will El Nino impact agricultural commodities and which crops are most exposed?
- How have recent shocks affected commodity prices, inflation, and inflation expectations?
- How will policy makers respond to these shocks? What are the monetary, fiscal, trade, and foreign policy implications?
- How will global financial markets respond? Where are the tactical and cyclical opportunities to be found?
Report
The wide crack spread reflects a bifurcated oil market. The severity of the crude oil disruption has recently softened, while the US-Iran and Ukraine-Russia conflicts have created a perfect storm for refined product markets. Going forward, even though conditions are not yet in place for the crack sp...
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