Insights

Growth, inflation, and rate risk drive sector returns and fundamentals, but macro’s explanatory power is at multi-decade lows. Long/short industry-group baskets show the equity market has turned pessimistic about growth, a potential opportunity as the macro data firm. The market’s inflation view has...

Stablecoins are evolving from a niche crypto instrument into a macro-relevant financial layer. This Special Report maps the transmission channels and consequences for the Treasury market, bank funding dynamics, and the dollar’s global footprint....

Investors have decided that the news flow out of the Middle East over the weekend was beyond negative, it is borderline apocalyptic. There are several reasons to agree with this assessment....

The basic idea behind the kinked Phillips curve framework is that there is a non-linear relationship between inflation and unemployment. When long-term inflation expectations are well anchored and the economy is operating along the steep portion of the aggregate labor supply curve, falling labor dem...

The US High Quality portfolio continues to outperform its benchmark through February, returning -1.29%, while its SPY benchmark returned -1.33%. On a trailing three-month basis, the USHQ portfolio’s performance was stronger than the benchmark as well, with USHQ outperforming by approx. 63bps. ...

Instead of a normal missive, I am sending all my clients today a very lightly edited internal email that I just shared with the whole firm. I hope that it illustrates to you some of the … “fear”… that we all share with each other behind closed doors here at BCA Research as colleagues and teammates. ...

Looking through month-to-month volatility, job growth’s underlying trend is stable and consistent with a flat-to-slightly higher unemployment rate....

Everyone has opinions on Private Credit, but few have the data, and fewer have the objectivity. We give you both. In under 5 minutes, you will understand how we got here and, more importantly, how to allocate from here....

Avoid EM and DM risk assets. In the near term (one-to-three months), the odds favor US equity outperformance and a US dollar rebound. Nevertheless, the cyclical outlook (nine-to-12 months) warrants underweighting US equities and staying short the greenback....

Europe’s fiscal debate has resurfaced as interest rates normalize and new spending pressures emerge. Yet alarmism is misplaced. Aggregate debt levels are high but broadly stable, servicing costs remain historically low, and r–g dynamics are broadly benign. Fiscal space matters less as the ECB and EU...