Insights

It is too soon to sell the rip in oil or buy the dip in stocks. Stick with risk-off trades for now....

Middle East hostilities have triggered risk-off moves and pushed oil prices higher. Previous geopolitically driven oil price disruptions suggest that speed, persistence and equity market vulnerability relate to the degree of the market sell off. At the other end of the spectrum, energy stocks should...

India is seeing net capital outflows for the first time in a generation. The central bank is selling foreign reserves to defend the rupee, which is draining banking system liquidity. The latter risks derailing the nascent credit revival. Indian stock prices remain vulnerable....

Since our Saturday missive, there have been several developments in the ongoing conflict between Iran and the US-Israel coalition. ...

Recessions are inevitable but unpredictable. While earnings drive long‑term equity performance through the cycle, around turning points fundamentals follow a predictable sequence: multiples contract first, then prices, then earnings. Recessions can shift sector leadership, but simulations show that ...

Fears of widespread job losses due to AI are overstated. For investors, the key is that white-collar anxiety is accelerating a red-hot blue-collar economy via lower yields. Upgrade Private Real Estate to overweight....

The Section 122 tariffs under the US Trade Act of 1974 are more favorable to Europe; the trade-weighted tariff rate falls to 10.45%, from 11.74% pre-ruling. This positive development does not change our overall views on Europe, as we expected lower tariffs ahead of the US midterms. ...

The turmoil in private credit is a wild card, but our traditional suite of credit cycle indicators does not point to an imminent spread-widening episode. We reiterate our benchmark weightings on Treasuries, investment-grade and high-yield corporate bonds....

The fog of war is the thickest at the dawn of kinetic action. However, BCA’s GeoMacro Strategy has trade recommendations to manage and thus we send this missive despite the significant uncertainty. ...

MacroQuant recommends a modest overweight position in equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, has downgraded oil to neutral, and is bullish on copper and gold....