Insights

Policy risks are set to fade just as markets underestimate hawkish Fed repricing and crowd into short-USD positions, setting the stage for a tactical dollar rebound into the election cycle. Go long USD/CHF to capture the rate differential and receding policy uncertainty. ...

In Section I, Doug recommends cutting US equity exposure in favor of Europe as reduced recession odds make it unlikely that the US will draw safe-haven capital flows. In Section II, Jesse ranks middle economic powers across hard and soft power dimensions and recommends investing in their defense and...

In Section II, Jesse ranks middle economic powers across hard and soft power dimensions and recommends investing in their defense and industrial sectors....

Interest rate volatility is very low across developed market fixed income. Investors should maximize the carry in their portfolios to outperform in a low rate vol environment....

Tech companies have historically generated profits from three main sources: 1) economies of scale; 2) network effects; and 3) proprietary technologies. AI threatens to undercut all three sources. ...

The global drive to build a resilient ex-China rare earth supply chain is accelerating. It has emerged as a strategic priority and is backed by both public and private sector investment in many countries.  In this Special Report, we argue that rare earth adjacent plays present a more attra...

M&A activity finally reaccelerated in Q4 2025—it’s just the start. Macro Hedge Funds have outperformed with top-decile performance from Discretionary Macro—but that’s towards the end. We move Macro from overweight to underweight and Event Driven from neutral to overweight....

The president did not announce significant new tax cuts or economic stimulus....

This report examines the implications for Chinese exports and global trade in light of the US Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs....

The US economy is in the Slowdown phase of the business cycle, according to our measure of aggregate US economic activity; growth remains positive but acceleration is negative. Historically, this phase more often resolves in reacceleration than recession. Recent market price action, from the index, ...