Insights

The capex debate is better framed not as boom versus bubble, but as around capacity, leverage, and cash conversion. ROEs have compressed, but revenue growth and margin expansion offer a credible path back. Spenders likely have time to make good on their investments, though the market’s leash may be ...

The CNY is undervalued and highly competitive. This gives China room to let the currency appreciate while remaining an export-driven powerhouse, gradually shifting from export intensity toward stronger domestic consumption. This achieves two objectives. First, it narrows the capital account deficit ...

This Special Report assesses evidence of RMB’s involvement in global carry trades, examines its structural characteristics, and identifies key indicators of a potential unwind....

The near-term outlook is less supportive for European banks and defense equities. We downgrade banks to neutral and continue to expect defense stocks to trade in a “sell the rumor, buy the news” pattern....

The annual benchmark payrolls revisions revealed that the labor market has been weaker for longer than initially reported. The probability that a crack in consumption is just around the corner is much reduced and we have therefore dialed back our recession expectations. Though our asset allocation r...

Core inflation will get close to the Fed’s 2% target by the end of this year....

The 2026 next dollar playbook is about cross-asset relative-value investing. We move underweight Private Credit but not for reasons investors expect–BDCs are now longs. We shift to overweight Infrastructure and real assets more broadly–Publics included....

If humanoid robots were to become substitutable for workers, the AI age could lead to rapid growth in the size of the effective global labor force. The result could be a larger version of the “China shock,” which followed China’s entry into the global economy....

The Warsh Fed will run the US economy hot. This is bad for T-bonds and the dollar, but good for stocks. Plus, a new tactical trade is overweight Consumer Discretionary (RXI) versus Industrials (EXI)....

The January jobs report was unambiguously strong. Although the 172K gain in private payrolls will almost certainly be revised down, the message from the "ratios" was reassuring: The unemployment rate fell for a second straight month, the labor force participation rate increased, the share of workers...