Insights

The US High Quality portfolio outperformed its benchmark through January, returning 1.50%, while its SPY benchmark returned 0.26%. On a trailing three-month basis, the USHQ portfolio’s performance was stronger than the benchmark as well, with USHQ outperforming by approx. 152bps....

China is providing limited stimulus, promoting tech and trade, and maintaining a tariff truce with the US in 2026. Structural flaws and great power struggle continue to cast dark clouds over the long run....

The US residential real estate market remains soft. While the decline in mortgage rates is a positive, it is too early to bet on housing becoming the engine of growth for the US economy this year....

This week’s central bank meetings are a good reminder that monetary policy can still surprise. The Bank of England sounded more dovish, and the European Central Bank sounded complacent about the inflation undershoot. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked rates earlier this week. Investors s...

The US and Japan are in the same predicament: save the bond market or save the stock market? How this predicament will be resolved is the biggest global macro call of 2026-27. Plus: a new tactical trade is to go short AUD/JPY....

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for February 2026....

Sell America? No. The GeoMacro trade is Buy RoW! Left-tail risks are easing because the US isn’t collapsing. That argues for less enthusiasm for safe havens, not selling US assets. The S&P 500 can perform while remaining underweight the US – it happened in 2025 and will happen again....

South Africa’s commodity boost is fading, but its cyclical headwinds remain. As growth weakens and capital inflows dry up, the rand looks increasingly vulnerable to a reversal....

The metals mania is fueling extreme volatility. In particular, the price of copper has become detached from fundamentals and is vulnerable to the downside....

Egypt’s underlying inflation pressures are much higher than the headline CPI numbers imply. Real interest rates have plunged. As such, domestic bond yields have stayed high for a reason. Steer clear....