Insights

Weak, narrowly concentrated job growth in fields that pay poorly bodes ill for the economy, but we enter 2026 recommending benchmark allocations because we are wary of the potential for an AI-driven meltup. Investors should bide their time before turning defensive....

2026 will see geopolitical risk move sideways globally as the US pursues a ceasefire in the proxy war with Russia and a tariff truce with China ahead of midterm elections that will produce gridlock....

This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets. We will also ...

The SNB remains on hold, but the bar for further easing is falling quickly – even as Switzerland secures a breakthrough trade deal with the US. With CHF now pressing against a policy ceiling, the franc looks increasingly attractive as a funding currency....

Risk assets in EM/China and cyclical commodities will sell off in H1 2026. A shift toward aggressive policy stimulus in China and a clear improvement in global manufacturing are needed to produce durable rallies in EM/China risk assets and the prices of energy and industrial metals....

The bull versus bear battlelines are drawn for 2026: The friendliest Fed meets the most concentrated stock market rally ever. This last report of the year goes through the 10 key views for 2026 that emanate from this fascinating setup....

The Fed is on hold for now, but its 2026 economic projections are far too optimistic. The Fed will ease more next year than it currently anticipates. ...

We are constructive on equities in 2026, as monetary easing, fiscal support, GenAI-related capex, and strong earnings growth are unequivocally positive for the asset class. Valuations are extended, but concerns about a bubble are overstated. Despite the favorable backdrop, we expect the S&P 500 ...

We had a good year in 2025. For two years now, we have been unabashedly bullish, proving that the GeoMacro framework works....

Institutional investors continue to avoid US Real Estate, but fundamentals and valuations are aligned for a compelling multi-year entry point. As one of our highest conviction overweights, we remain bullish on Office, Industrial, and Retail – Multifamily still doesn’t make the cut....