Insights

September job gains topped modest expectations, but year-over-year payrolls growth appears to have fallen below stall speed. We remain concerned about US activity....

The K-shaped economy will likely reverse in 2026, with the cyclical parts of the economy doing better. Upgrade Financials and Materials from neutral to overweight. Downgrade Communication Services and Utilities from overweight to neutral. Favor value stocks. Upgrade Bitcoin from neutral to overweigh...

Our conclusions from 2019 were on point. We correctly predicted the fiscal and monetary deluge in 2020 and the subsequent rise in fiscal deficits. Now that we are where we are, someone is going to have to pay for it all. Especially as America's income inequality outcomes are just as bad as ever.&nbs...

MacroQuant remains tactically overweight equities, favors an above-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios, remains bearish on the US dollar, and is bullish on gold....

Our key US fixed income views for 2026....

Stock market valuations are moving as a near-perfect mirror image of the US real interest rate, meaning that the Fed is underpinning the stock market. But if the market stopped believing in AI-driven profits growth, valuations would collapse, irrespective of the Fed’s efforts to underpin them. When ...

What should investors take from this flurry of diplomatic activity ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday?...

The RBNZ has concluded its aggressive easing blitz. With New Zealand economy finally showing signs of life, both the kiwi and local rates now look ripe for a reversal. ...

The odds have risen that we have reached a “Metaverse Moment” – a situation where investors punish AI companies for increasing capex. This warrants greater caution towards AI stocks specifically, and the broader S&P 500 more generally....

Private Equity Buyouts outperform Public Equities. Whether attributed to the “illiquidity premium” or otherwise, the performance gap is clear. While the outperformance will narrow going forward, the current cycle favors deploying the next dollar in Buyouts. We walk through the most unbiased analysis...