Insights

Investors are starting to price an end to the conflict in Ukraine as President Trump’s team puts on a full court press with the intention of replicating the successful peace negotiations in the Middle East....

China’s economy is weakening across the board as global risk-off hits equities. With housing conditions worsening and exports contracting—a perfect storm—Beijing faces mounting pressure to deliver stronger, housing-focused stimulus....

Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2026. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients. Our discussion featured BCA’s economic and financial market outlook for the year ahead....

Q3 results were strong but failed to impress investors, and Q4 will likely prove more challenging. Beneath the surface, earnings diverged sharply: Firms catering to affluent consumers maintained solid momentum, while those reliant on the mass market lagged. We remain equal weight Consumer Services a...

US intervention will likely force out Maduro from Venezuela and reopen the economy. This could increase Venezuelan crude production in the long run, a modestly bearish outcome for oil markets over cyclical and structural horizons. ...

US talks with Russia and China coincide with rising EU-Russia and Japan-China tensions. Stay overweight US assets and long Japanese yen. ...

Markets are misreading Japan’s fiscal headlines. Our latest Insight examines what will shape BoJ policy next, when intervention might come, and the timing of a yen reversal....

The September employment report probably won’t convince enough hawks to vote for a rate cut in December....

Many key equity indexes have failed to break above major resistance levels, while risky segments have begun to crack. Altogether, this suggests that a major peak in risk assets has probably been made. Short the MSCI EM stock index with a stop loss at 1470....

Germany’s economy is regaining momentum after nearly two years of recession. Despite the ongoing cyclical rebound and fiscal stimulus, political gridlock and deep-seated structural challenges threaten to limit the country’s long-term growth potential. Investors should be underweight German Bunds and...