Insights

In the absence of official government data, investors are turning to alternative sources to gauge the direction of the US economy. Our analysis of this data suggests that the economy has continued to expand at a moderate pace over the past two months. If the Supreme Court were to strike down the tar...

The Bank of England will resume rate cuts in December after the autumn budget is passed. Today’s Strategy Insight discusses what this means for UK gilts and the pound....

Long-term investors should own gold. The network effect that makes gold the physical ‘insurance asset’ of choice will generate long-term outperformance. But long-term investors should also own bitcoin. The network effect that makes bitcoin the digital ‘insurance asset’ of choice will generate long-t...

We recommend a new relative tech equity trade that will likely produce positive returns over the next six to 12 months, regardless of whether the AI hype continues or reverses....

By tracing patterns across China’s past three Five-Year Plans, we reveal how policy cycles shape markets—and what investors should expect in the next five years....

US assets should benefit in the short run as investors recognize that US checks and balances still operate – and so does the election cycle. ...

Brazil’s bleak macro outlook persists – rising debt, weak productivity, and political inertia. With 2026 elections looming, genuine reform seems unlikely, though Argentina’s bold turnaround could pressure Brasília to rethink its cycle of governability over growth....

Détente between China and the US is a big deal. Economic data continues to give the Fed reasons to cut. What is there to be worried about? Very little. But we chew on some bearish thoughts as we start thinking about 2026....

Yield-to-maturity remains the anchor of long-term bond return projections. Incorporating rolldown effects enhances accuracy. Our revamped “building-block” approach to fixed income capital market assumptions provides a solid, data-driven foundation for informed strategic asset allocation decisions....

Investor reaction to Meta’s GenAI is an admonition against overspending, rather than a sign of a fraying GenAI rally. Other hyperscalers’ investments are driven by buoyant demand and remain profitable. With valuations stretched and many of the positives priced in, market consolidation is likely. We ...