Insights

China's anti-involution policies will not end deflation or boost corporate profits on a sustainable basis. Authorities will be reluctant to cut industrial capacity as doing so would lead to layoffs. Consequently, production will continue to exceed demand, and price deflation will persist....

The Fed cut rates today, but a follow-up rate cut in December is uncertain. It will depend, in large part, on who wins a debate about the neutral rate of interest....

This month’s China High-Frequency Indicator (HFI) Chartbook decodes the conflicting messages in recent economic data, highlights key signals from our HFI, and explains what they mean for China’s economy and markets....

Private Credit outsiders are skeptical, insiders are believers—but are becoming nervous now. In the highlight of this Quarterly Report, we dig beneath the surface to uncover the buried bodies in Private AND Public Credit. The ghosts of 2020-2021 loan originations are catching up with investors....

The rush to build AI infrastructure is based on a false premise: that there are significant advantages to being the first to come to market....

US restrictions on Russian crude exports could disrupt global oil supplies and trade flows over the near term. However, they are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on crude prices over a cyclical timeframe. Stay short Brent. ...

President Javier Milei’s electoral win has massively outperformed expectations. Meaningful legislative support and renewed market confidence will revitalize his liberalizing economic program. Our recommendation not to sell Argentine assets following the post-Buenos Aires election carnage has been va...

US-China decoupling and rare-earth supply disruptions created a unique opportunity for non-Chinese miners and refiners to scale production and achieve profitability. The build-out will be lengthy, costly, and fraught with challenges, but government support materially improves the odds. Rare-earth pr...

In this week’s note, we share the main implications for European investors from what was discussed at the BCA Conference in New York and provide a short list of the questions most frequently asked by investors we met recently in Lisbon, Madrid, and Barcelona....

Precious metals, corporate credit, and tech stocks are all showing signs of late-cycle euphoria. We identify various trigger points that investors should monitor to turn more bearish....