Insights

Our key US fixed income views for 2026....

Stock market valuations are moving as a near-perfect mirror image of the US real interest rate, meaning that the Fed is underpinning the stock market. But if the market stopped believing in AI-driven profits growth, valuations would collapse, irrespective of the Fed’s efforts to underpin them. When ...

What should investors take from this flurry of diplomatic activity ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday?...

The RBNZ has concluded its aggressive easing blitz. With New Zealand economy finally showing signs of life, both the kiwi and local rates now look ripe for a reversal. ...

The odds have risen that we have reached a “Metaverse Moment” – a situation where investors punish AI companies for increasing capex. This warrants greater caution towards AI stocks specifically, and the broader S&P 500 more generally....

Private Equity Buyouts outperform Public Equities. Whether attributed to the “illiquidity premium” or otherwise, the performance gap is clear. While the outperformance will narrow going forward, the current cycle favors deploying the next dollar in Buyouts. We walk through the most unbiased analysis...

Investors are starting to price an end to the conflict in Ukraine as President Trump’s team puts on a full court press with the intention of replicating the successful peace negotiations in the Middle East....

China’s economy is weakening across the board as global risk-off hits equities. With housing conditions worsening and exports contracting—a perfect storm—Beijing faces mounting pressure to deliver stronger, housing-focused stimulus....

Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2026. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients. Our discussion featured BCA’s economic and financial market outlook for the year ahead....

The October FOMC minutes underscored deep divisions over the Fed’s next move, reinforcing expectations for a December hold but keeping the easing bias intact. The 10–2 vote for a 25 bps cut included dissents on both sides (Governor Miran for a 50 bps move and Kansas City Fed President Schmid for no ...