Insights

Falling oil prices are countering tariff-driven inflation which, along with a weakening labor market, is reinforcing a long duration stance. Brent crude broke below the $65/bbl support level held since June and WTI is now down 16% from a year ago. Falling oil prices are significant at this stage of ...

We expect the divergence between resilient growth and weakening employment to be resolved by lower growth estimates, supporting long duration and steepeners. Economic activity and employment usually move together in a circular relationship: spending drives income and jobs, with income driving subseq...

Markets are increasingly pricing an end to the global easing cycle, with many central banks expected to remain on hold. But uncertainty remains high, and policy surprises are likely going into 2026. This Strategy Report breaks down the current drivers behind G10 central bank policies, and how to pos...

The Trump-Xi summit continued the trade truce and tentatively created a framework to contain tensions over 2026. That is not a trade deal but it is good enough for global financial markets, especially Chinese assets....

This week, our screeners explore opportunities arising from Europe’s electrification, identify high-quality Rare Earth plays, and propose a portfolio to hedge against a major global conflict....

In Section II, Doug and Global Investment Strategy’s Miroslav Aradski consider the implications of the AI investment boom....

In Section I, Doug explains how the sharp upward revision to second-quarter consumption in the final GDP estimate has reduced our recession conviction and could lead us to abandon our recession call altogether. The situation is fluid, though, as typified by the striking weakness of stocks in consume...

Asset allocators must pay attention not only to the magnitude of an asset’s expected returns but also to its shape, a concept technically known as skew. Adding skew into our analysis moves our equity allocation up to neutral while bonds remain at underweight. Plus: a new tactical trade is to buy sug...

China's anti-involution policies will not end deflation or boost corporate profits on a sustainable basis. Authorities will be reluctant to cut industrial capacity as doing so would lead to layoffs. Consequently, production will continue to exceed demand, and price deflation will persist....

The Fed cut rates today, but a follow-up rate cut in December is uncertain. It will depend, in large part, on who wins a debate about the neutral rate of interest....