Insights

Although our recession conviction has risen, we conclude our strategy review by closing our equity underweight and our fixed income and cash overweights. AI momentum is too strong to have anything more than modest exposure to an equity decline via a small SPY put position....

Several clients have asked the GeoMacro team what we expect the Trump administration to focus on over the next 12 months. These will be critical 12 months as the midterm electoral campaign will be in full swing following Labor Day next year....

The August employment report showed a modest increase in labor market slack, enough to cement a 25-basis-point rate cut this month....

The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio outperformed its benchmark through August, returning 5.39%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned 3.75%. On a trailing three-month basis, the USHQ portfolio’s performance was weaker than the benchmark, but the gap narrowed, with USHQ underperforming by approximately ...

Investors will be disappointed if they buy into the China rally and then Russia escalates the war in Ukraine....

Inflation expectations in the US remain reasonably well anchored and there are few signs of a brewing wage-price spiral. Thus, the near-term risks to growth outweigh the risks of higher inflation. Looking beyond the next year or two, however, we are worried about stagflation....

The resilience of US non-tech companies' profitability has not been driven by top-line growth but by falling costs, which safeguarded profit margins. Presently, risks in US stocks outweigh the potential rewards – margin sustainability is uncertain while equity valuations are very stretched....

The bond vigilantes are circling over several targets right now: France, the UK, and Japan. But France is the most vulnerable because of a toxic combination: a total debt ratio well above 300 percent plus the worst primary deficit in the G7 plus political gridlock, which will get even worse if Prime...

The NFL and NBA grab the headlines, but growth beats size. This report reveals the story behind Major League Soccer (MLS) growth. Valuations have jumped, yet plenty of upside remains—making the MLS relatively attractive compared to other US major leagues....

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2025....