Insights

MacroQuant is neutral-to-slightly positive on stocks on a tactical 1-to-3 month horizon but sees downside risks over a longer-term horizon. Its favorite equity sectors are communication services and IT. Regionally, it prefers EM and US equities. The model is bullish on duration. It remains bearish o...

US Real Estate has been under pressure post-2022. This chartpack offers a snapshot of the cap rate cycle across measures, sectors, and cities. Industrial and Multifamily spreads remain tight while Office and Retail have peaked. Chicago and Houston differ as cities, but their Real Estate trends look ...

Our tactical framework, which tracks the reflexive loop between financial conditions and economic surprises, points to stronger near-term growth, leaving equities vulnerable if inflation re-accelerates. Data surprises move markets, while bond yields and the USD in turn shape growth outcomes through ...

We remain cyclically short Brent but are tightening the stop loss to $73/bbl to guard against a geopolitics-driven upside break....

Monetary policy divergences are re-emerging. We rely on BCA’s Central Bank Monitor to assess the current policy stance of major central banks, and highlight the tactical opportunities across bond markets and currencies. ...

Real Estate performance is contingent upon the Fed rate-cutting cycle. Yet, we worry about a hawkish Fed surprise and are closing our overweight in the sector. We also recommend a granular approach to subsector selection....

This week our screeners explore offshore Chinese internet stocks, US Healthcare equities, and sectoral opportunities in the Canadian bourse.    ...

Rising Russia-NATO risks, tactical oil/gold trades, tougher sanctions on Russia (maybe China), China stimulus with ~5% growth target, and US checks on Trump’s ambitions will define Q4. ...

In Section I, Doug highlights that benchmark positioning in equities, fixed income and cash is now recommended. Still, the US macro situation warrants continual monitoring, given weakening labor market momentum. In Section II, Jonathan shows how valuation-adjusted fundamental momentum has been a suc...

In Section II, Jonathan shows how valuation-adjusted fundamental momentum has been a successful tool for ranking global sectors....