Insights

Data received since we began reassessing our bearish stance supported our notion that the economy is not as strong as the investor consensus perceives. But the softness will likely have to intensify in July and August to preserve our defensive recommendations....

The Q2 earnings season delivered solid earnings and sales growth and resilient margins, reassuring investors that corporate America remains in good health and is capable of navigating economic uncertainty while mitigating the impact of new trade levies. The outlook is generally positive, but with on...

This week we develop two ideas with three screeners. The first identifies deep cyclical sectors that continue to outperform post Liberation Day in the US. We provide two screens to identify equity opportunities for this.  Our final screener identifies momentum stocks that are cheap and trending...

Taiwan’s failed recall election reduces 12-month geopolitical risk for Taiwanese and Chinese equities on the margin. We are reviewing our long European industrials / short Chinese industrials trade. ...

The BoE is easing, but risks falling behind. Labor and growth cracks are starting to emerge, and the Bank may soon be forced to move more decisively. This report outlines why gilts remain a buy and sterling’s path is diverging vs. USD and EUR....

US TMT stocks have been delivering miraculous profit performance. Yet, outside US large tech, global equity fundamentals and technicals are troublesome. A near-term USD rebound should be faded....

Expectations for US inflation at 3.3 percent are inconsistent with expectations for the Fed to slash rates, so one of these expectations is likely wrong. We describe how to play this mispricing. Plus, a new position is to go overweight global consumer discretionary (RXI)....

Chinese stock prices have significantly decoupled from the country’s business cycle, with the full impact of US tariffs yet to be realized. The valuation-driven equity gains without a cyclical economic recovery will be vulnerable to a reversal....

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for August 2025....

Markets have ripped in July, ignoring underwhelming payrolls and retail sales figures. This was our bet, so we don't think this is a mistake. The economy is transitioning from one catalyzed by cash to one led by lower borrowing rates. The combination of a growth slowdown tempered fiscal policy, and ...