Insights

Economic activity plainly slowed in the first half, led by decelerating consumption and payrolls growth, but financial markets didn’t care. If the next two weeks of data don’t indicate that the May-June slowdown stretched into July and August, we will likely drop our defensive recommendations....

Our newly constructed China Economic Pressure Indicator shows intensifying household stress, raising the likelihood of new policy support in the coming months. We recommend a tactical trade as a stimulus hedge....

The AI boom has had less of an impact on the economy than widely believed. This may eventually change, but the risk is that investors grow impatient before it does....

EM sovereign and corporate credit spreads are set to widen. Within a global credit portfolio, maintain a neutral allocation to EM credit markets versus US corporate credit. Favor EM local currency bonds over EM USD bonds....

In 7 charts and under 1,000 words, we reveal the real story behind AI Venture Capital. Valuations are not at extremes and IPOs do not signal a replay of the 2000 Tech Bubble—yet....

The media is missing the big picture: the war is already contained. The falling oil price confirms that. We fully expect cold feet and volatility incidents in the very near term but there is only a 5% chance of Russia triggering a larger war with NATO – and that is what really matters. ...

The Norges Bank will cut rates only once until year-end as the NOK weakens and inflation hovers around 3%. Expect aggressive easing next year as the economic recovery is delayed by weakness in the energy sector and the labor market deteriorates....

GenAI momentum is building. Many companies are already reaping benefits from the technology. GenAI is disrupting entire industries, such as education, image generation, and staffing. Investors should prefer our “disruptors” basket over the “disrupted” basket....

President Donald Trump and his counterpart President Vladimir Putin have met at an air force base in Alaska. The backdrop? America’s shiny F-22 Raptors ominously gleaming on the tarmac, a clear show of force by the US. A reminder that President Trump may be quite friendly with Putin, but that he wil...

This week our three screeners highlight plays in global small-cap value stocks, gold miners, and stocks exposed to an exciting structural investment theme: Space. ...