Insights

Section I outlines BCA’s views on the US-Iran conflict, Europe’s near-term outlook, the currency and bond selloffs in Japan and the early days of the Warsh Fed. In Section II, Roukaya, Matt, and Artem argue that the worst of gold's downturn is likely behind us. Real rates and the dollar — which have...

Rising term premium is often read as a fiscal warning sign. We show the real driver is monetary policy uncertainty, and what the implications are for global term premia going forward....

Despite today’s hold, the bar for a rate hike in September remains low and contingent on the next two core CPI reports....

Taiwan will not be invaded soon but focus on external constraints, not internal. Strongmen or “visionary” leaders can override geopolitical constraints at critical junctures, at least initially. ...

For almost two decades, beta was the only game in town and alpha a loser's game. This era is ending, and we lay out why a more multipolar, dirigiste, and AI-disrupted world is pushing dispersion structurally higher, creating renewed alpha opportunities....

Today's concerns about Private Credit are overstated. We provide our three-criteria framework that investors can use to track Private Credit's doomsday risk. Systemic crises build over years and decades. In Private Credit, that build is happening now....

Yen weakness and rising JGB yields aren't a fiscal crisis; they're a market pricing an overheating economy and a BoJ falling behind the inflation curve. We lay out why the endgame is near, and what to watch before buying the yen this winter....

Small-cap outperformance has been driven mostly by within-sector stock selection, not differences in sector weighting. With the small-cap earnings catch-up reversing and leverage rising, we would fade the low-quality small-cap rally. We still want cyclical and AI exposure, but through higher-quality...

Europe faces a difficult macro backdrop, but whether it slips into recession remains finely balanced. We present two perspectives before translating them into investment implications. ...

Global equities have reached extremes on multiple measures, none of which are reliable timing tools. But imbalances in economics and investing can build for far longer than rational analysis would predict - and usually unravel much faster than investors expect....