Insights

Economic activity and hiring cooled significantly in the first half of the year. The most important question for investors is whether this signals an imminent increase in labor market slack....

A high US tariff and the lingering uncertainties on the US-India trade deal will hurt investors sentiment. This and contracting corporate profits will push share prices lower. Stay underweight Indian stocks....

Investors should stick to a defensive stance in the very near term as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and persistent trade tensions cause market volatility....

Over the first half of 2025, AI capex outpaced both consumption and all other investments in its contribution to US growth. Like all other capex cycles this one will end in tears. However, the indicators we track suggest that AI capex can continue supporting growth and markets for now. Remain Neutra...

In Section II, Jonathan reviews the US fiscal outlook in the wake of the passage of the OBBBA....

In Section I, Doug weighs the recent reduction in trade uncertainty against the clear signs of labor market and consumer weakness. In Section II, Jonathan reviews the US fiscal outlook in the wake of the passage of the OBBBA....

MacroQuant is recommending that equity investors keep their finger near the eject button but avoid pressing it for now. The model is warming up to the dollar again and sees scope for oil prices to rise....

The yen’s discount, surplus, and rising real rates line up for a multi-quarter surge. Find out why EUR/JPY is the first short and when USD/JPY follows....

Microsoft has gone up in a worryingly near-perfect straight line with dimension 1.098. Take August off before making a big commitment to stocks. Plus: a new tactical trade is to go long USD/HUF....

The Fed will keep rates on hold until the unemployment rate forces its hand....