Asset Allocation
Carbon credits as an asset class are becoming increasingly investable. Given that the structural bull case for this asset class is compelling, strategic investors should long carbon credits. However tactical investors should book profits or consider merits of a short position, since prices are likely to correct over the next 12-24 months.
Stocks should continue to rally in the near term, but investors should prepare to turn more defensive towards the end of the year in advance of a recession in 2024.
A global portfolio is likely to return only 5.3% a year over the next decade, compared to 6.7% in the past. Investors either need to lower their return expectations, or take more risk. Our total return methodology remains consistent with previous editions, with changes limited to the Alternatives section.
In part 2 of this series, we discuss mainstream EM equity valuations and present the results of our cross-country analysis. The goal is to identify overweights and underweights within an EM equity portfolio.
