Developed Countries
A risk/reward ranking of the 10 major US investment grade corporate bond sectors.
The 2.1-point increase in Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index in March brought it to a 9-month high of 87.8 and beat expectations of a more muted rise to 86.0. Both current economic conditions (+1.2 to 88.1) as well as expectations for the next six months…
The US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) unexpectedly rose by 0.1% m/m in February, surprising anticipations that the pace of decline would ease from -0.4% m/m to -0.1% m/m. Equity gains and the resilience of the US labor market drove the…
Crude oil prices have been steadily rising since mid-December with Brent rising to its highest level since November 2023. Both demand and supply-side forces are behind this move. The catalyst for the month-to-date gain is a series of Ukrainian drone attacks…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, Biden’s domestic political actions are limited and in combination with the overbought and overpriced US equity market, Biden’s desperation, and the need to demonstrate credibility towards inflation…
The flash PMI estimates for March produced a mixed update on manufacturing and service sector activity in the US and Eurozone. In the US, the results suggest that growth is more resilient in the manufacturing sector than in services. The…
The Swiss National Bank’s 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday came as a dovish surprise to market participants anticipating it would hold the policy rate unchanged. The rate cut, which brought the policy rate down to 1.5% makes the SNB the first among its G10…
The steepening of the yield-curve powered the outperformance of the S&P 500 Financials relative to the overall market since the spring of 2023 banking crisis. This sector returned 30.1% over this period, against 27.3% for the S&P 500. Our US Equity…
The US Presidential election is eight months away. In this report, we will be looking at what is left of President Biden’s political capital and his room for actions in the next few months which may include market-negative actions such as the recently announced investigation into Apple.
Despite a couple of rate cuts in H2 2024, borrowing costs will remain elevated in real terms amid lower inflation in the US and Europe. This and tightening fiscal policy will hinder domestic demand in advanced economies. Domestic demand in China and EM ex-China will remain very tepid, with risks skewed to the downside.