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Economic Growth

Aggregate US Economic Data Surpass Expectations In February
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) – a summary statistic of US economic data releases – firmed to 0.05 in February from -0.54, and surpassed expectations it would remain in negative (below-average growth) territory. All four categories of…
Daily Insights
German Ifo Business Sentiment Improves
The 2.1-point increase in Germany’s Ifo Business Climate index in March brought it to a 9-month high of 87.8 and beat expectations of a more muted rise to 86.0. Both current economic conditions (+1.2 to 88.1) as well as expectations for the next six months…
Daily Insights
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A Tug Of War

Despite a couple of rate cuts in H2 2024, borrowing costs will remain elevated in real terms amid lower inflation in the US and Europe. This and tightening fiscal policy will hinder domestic demand in advanced economies. Domestic demand in China and EM ex-China will remain very tepid, with risks skewed to the downside.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
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What Is Sweden Telling Us About The Global Cycle?

In this joint Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment Strategy Special Report, we assess economic activity in Sweden, a highly cyclical and trade-oriented economy, and its implications for the global growth outlook.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Melanie Kermadjian, Chester Ntonifor
Are Taiwanese Export Orders Sending A Warning?
The 10.4% contraction in Taiwanese export orders for February delivered a negative surprise to expectations that the pace of expansion would slow from 1.9% y/y to 1.2% y/y. However, investors should not read too deeply into this weaker-than-anticipated…
Daily Insights
Chinese Housing Market: A Fourth Year Of Contraction?
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, the adjustment in China’s real estate sector is not over. Odds are that the property market will contract for the fourth year in a row. The property market indicators continue to paint a grim…
Daily Insights
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Turkey: Macro-Orthodoxy Redux?

Turkey’s macro policy stance can hardly be called orthodox. And yet, corporate profit margins will contract meaningfully this year. The lira can also fall massively even if inflation eases from the extremely high levels – just as it did in the 1990s.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
US Homebuilder Sentiment Continues To Recover
Indicators continue to point to resilient US housing market dynamics. The NAHB Housing Market Index increased for the fourth consecutive month to an 8-month high of 51 in March, beating expectations it would remain unchanged at 48. Increases across all three…
Daily Insights
Structural Trends in Emerging Markets Debt: Global Savings Glut
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, the impact of the global savings glut is among the four structural trends that will drive EM debt going forward. As an asset traditionally further out on the risk curve, EMD is sensitive to…
Daily Insights
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Getting There

Improved consumer morale will not compensate for the fading tailwinds to consumption. Neither will the wealth effects from higher stocks and home prices.

US Investment Strategy by Jennifer Lacombe

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics