Economic Growth
On the surface, the acceleration in Chinese retail sales and industrial production growth in October suggests that the economy is holding up. Retail sales expanded by 7.6% y/y last month – beating expectations of 7.0% y/y following a 5.5% y/y increase in…
The US retail sales release delivered a mixed signal about US consumption. Although the headline figure contracted by 0.1% m/m in October, it was better than expectations of a 0.3% m/m decline. Moreover, the September increase was revised up from 0.7% m/m to…
The DXY collapsed to a 2 ½ month low on Tuesday following the softer than anticipated CPI inflation release which prompted investors to bring forward their Fed rate cut expectations (see The Numbers). This marks an acceleration of a budding downtrend since…
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment continues to send an optimistic signal. German sentiment jumped from -1.1 to +9.8 in November – its highest level since March and beating expectations of a smaller improvement to 5.0. Similarly, expectations for the Euro…
To the extent that US small businesses are typically more exposed to domestic economic conditions than larger firms, results of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends survey are instructive. One important trend is that the October survey results…
BCA Research's Global Investment Strategy service assigns 25% odds of the recession starting in 2025 or later. Our colleagues continue to think that the US will succumb to a recession in 2024, probably in the second half of the year. They see the…
China's money and credit data remained weak in October. New total social financing amounted to RMB 1.85 trillion – less than the RMB 1.95 trillion anticipated and below the prior month's increase of RMB 4.12 trillion. Similarly, loans extended by banks fell…
The Netherlands has a healthier and more stable economy and demography than its European peers. Investors should stay overweight developed European equities, including Dutch equities, relative to emerging European equities.
The preliminary release for the University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey sent a pessimistic signal about consumer sentiment on Friday. The headline index fell from 63.8 to 60.4 in November, below expectations of a marginal decrease to 63.7. Declines in both…
The UK economy stagnated in Q3 – a deterioration from the minor 0.2% q/q expansion in the prior quarter. Although the Q3 figure is slightly better than anticipations of a 0.1% q/q contraction, the details of the report are generally weak. Consumption dropped…