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Equities

EM Equities: An Attractive Opportunity?
Emerging Market equities have been in a broad trading range all year. The MSCI index peaked on January 26, then bottomed in mid-March before recouping nearly all of its losses over the subsequent months. However, after nearly reaching its February top at the…
Daily Insights
An Air Pocket

The bear market in US bonds will likely end with a bang rather than a whimper. Even during the secular US bond bull market of 1982-2021, cyclical bond bear markets ended only after an eruption of financial turmoil. It would be strange if this current ascent in bond yields ended without significant casualties in the global financial system.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Fourth Quarter 2023 Strategy Outlook: On A Knife-Edge

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
US Households Are Getting Gloomier About The Outlook
The Conference Board’s Consumer Survey results delivered a negative signal about the US consumption outlook on Tuesday. Although the present situation component inched up marginally in September, a 9.6-point drop in the expectations component to 73.7 drove…
Daily Insights
Is That It For US Cyclicals Versus Defensives?
The year-to-date rally in US cyclical stocks has fizzled. After climbing 29% in the first seven months of the year, cyclical equities are down 6.0% since the beginning of August. This drop is happening in the context of a general equity selloff. However, the…
Daily Insights
Are US Equity Valuations Consistent With The Level Of Interest Rates?
One of the few things US equity investors agree upon these days is that the S&P 500 is expensive whether it is relative to history, other asset classes, or the level of interest rates. But how overvalued is the market? To this end, BCA’s US equity…
Daily Insights
Ifo German Business Sentiment: Smaller-Than-Anticipated Deterioration
The message from the German Ifo is that although business sentiment continues to weaken, the pace of deterioration slowed in September and appears to be in the process of bottoming. The Business Climate Index’s marginal 0.1-point decline to 85.7 delivered…
Daily Insights
A Reversal Of Fortune
Tech stocks have recently been bearing the brunt of the US equity selloff. The Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors – home to major H1 outperformers including Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Tesla – have both underperformed the…
Daily Insights
Overweight European Energy Stocks
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, energy stocks are an appealing overweight as a hedge against oil supply cuts. For now, the earnings of the energy sector continue to lag that of the broad market. However, relative earnings…
Daily Insights
Hitting A Pause Button: Roundtable Follow-Up

Bulls and bears have capitulated, and the majority of the clients surveyed expect a rangebound market in the near term. Our fair value PE NTM indicates that the S&P 500 is only modestly overvalued. The continued outperformance of the Magnificent Seven faces multiple hurdles. Meanwhile, fiscal spending is unlikely to create an impetus for another leg up in equity performance.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel

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