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Policy

German Election: Winds Of Change, Again
Our Geopolitical Strategy team reviewed possible outcomes for Sunday's German election as the far-right is playing an expanding role in mainstream German politics. German voters have shifted to the right, weakening the ruling center-left parties and…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Dollar: Breakout Or Breakdown?
Our Foreign Exchange strategists reviewed the rationale to their short US dollar position as the DXY has been in a trading range with resistance near 110 and support around 100. The widening US budget deficit caps the dollar’s potential. It boosts…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
German Election: Winds Of Change, Again

The rise of the far-right is challenging mainstream German politics. The CDU/CSU and SPD will govern Germany again after the election. A ceasefire in Ukraine will offer some relief, but Trump’s policies will keep tensions high. 

Geopolitical Strategy, European Investment Strategy by Yushu Ma
Europe Is No Longer A Value Trap
Our European strategists look at European equities after they garnered attention due to their low valuations. European equities are attracting interest primarily due to low valuations rather than strong growth expectations. Key challenges include low…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
A Will E. Coyote Moment For Markets?
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Jonathan LaBerge, Chief Strategist for our Special Reports Unit. Jonathan asks whether investors should be encouraged by the fact stocks are shrugging off US tariffs. The answer is no, because the same thing happened in…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
China: Strong Seasonal Credit Not Enough To Exit Deflation
China’s January monetary and credit data was solid. New yuan loans increased by CNY 5.1 trillion, while aggregate financing was up by 7.1 trillion. M1 also increased after contracting 1.4% y/y in December. Seasonality plays a big role in China from…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Ukraine Ceasefire A Tailwind For Europe

President Trump is negotiating a ceasefire in Ukraine. This will be a marginal headwind to some commodities which benefitted from the conflict like natural gas and wheat, and will be a marginal tailwind for European assets, specifically EM Europe. Use Trump’s tariff shock as an opportunity to buy European assets.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Reset The Timer

Some thoughts on this morning’s CPI report and its implications for the Fed and Treasury yields.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Bonds And The Fiscal Policy Risk

Questions about fiscal risks and their impact on bond markets have become more frequent in client conversations. This Special Report provides a framework to assess a country’s fiscal sustainability and how it affects its bond market outlook. On an individual country basis, Spain has shown a remarkable turnaround in its fiscal sustainability outlook while the fiscal outlook for France continues to deteriorate.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper
Understanding Bessenomics And Its Market Implications
Our Emerging Market strategists published a follow-up piece to their Bessenomics note where they assess the new Treasury Secretary plan’s impact on markets. Lower interest rates are central to Bessenomics. The Trump administration is expected to pressure…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier

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