Economy
May US CPI was roughly in line with estimates and still shows no evidence of energy passing through to core inflation. Headline CPI rose 0.5% m/m, accelerating to 4.2% y/y from 3.8%. Core came in cooler than estimates at 0.2% m/m, down from 0.4% in April,…
Australia's May NAB survey pointed to softer growth, with moderating price pressures reinforcing the case that the RBA's tightening cycle is over. Business conditions held steady at +3, firmly below the long-term average, after falling every month this year.…
May CPI data show no evidence of passthrough from energy prices to core inflation. This will keep the Fed on hold for the time being.
Mexican inflation has eased back to the high end of the target range, but Banxico likely still has room to cut over a cyclical horizon. Some concern around core price pressures remains, and Banxico ended its two-year easing cycle last month. Our Emerging…
The May NFIB survey missed estimates and pointed to softer small-business conditions, though the signal on the broader labor market remains mixed. The headline index fell to 95.3 from 95.9. The overall picture was soft, with both capex and hiring intentions…
Japan’s May Eco Watchers Survey beat estimates, pointing to resilient growth despite the Middle East conflict. Both the current conditions and outlook indexes rose more than expected, to 43.6 from 40.8 and to 40.7 from 39.4, respectively. Both had plunged in…
Canada’s labor market is showing early signs of stabilization, but not sufficient for the Bank of Canada to begin raising rates. Employment increased by 88k in May, well above expectations of 10k, led by a jump in full-time employment, while the unemployment…
The blowout US payrolls report reinforces improving labor market momentum and upside risks to Fed policy, arguing for continued caution on duration. Non-farm payrolls rose 172k, well-above expectations of 88k, while the prior two months were revised sharply…
The AI boom will increase inflation in the near term and could also raise it over the long term. The Fed’s reluctance to hike rates is understandable, but it risks amplifying what may already be a brewing stock market bubble.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2026.