Gabriel Gosselin
Research Associate
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Peak Crude Strain, For Now
Our Commodity strategists expect rising dark transits through the Strait of Hormuz to keep cushioning the blow to global crude supplies. Middle Eastern seaborne exports have continued to climb through September despite the latest escalation in hostilities, a…
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US Manufacturing: Resilient Growth, Renewed Price Pressures
The September Philadelphia Fed survey showed manufacturing momentum holding up, alongside renewed price pressures. The headline index eased less than expected, to 37.8 from 47.3. The report echoed the NY Empire survey released earlier this week: manufacturing…
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Is AI Doom Threatening The AI Boom?
Our Global Investment strategists believe the AI industry's recent call for slowing development reflects financial self-interest as much as fear of AI doom. Major AI companies recognize they are locked in an arms race for dominance that they cannot sustain…
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Empire Fed Survey: Manufacturing Growth Holds
The September Empire survey missed estimates, with manufacturing activity moderating and price pressures picking up. The headline index fell more than estimates to 7.6 from 20.6, indicating slower manufacturing growth, but still marking a sixth straight month…
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Barbarians At The (Tail)gate
Our Private Markets & Alternatives strategists expect colleges to open their athletic departments to private capital as revenue-sharing costs push programs into the red. Athletic departments generate significant revenue, but most operate on single-digit…
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The Three-Headed Threats To Equity Valuations
Our US Equity strategists remain constructive on US equities but see the path to their 8100 year-end target as increasingly dependent on earnings, with less scope for multiple expansion to contribute. Higher yields, slower EPS growth and heavy IPO issuance…
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Losing Steam Down Under
Australia's August NAB Business Survey points to a cooling economy and supports an on-hold RBA. Business conditions turned negative for the first time since 2020, falling to -1 from 4 and well below the long-term average. Profits and sales dropped to their…
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What’s Actually New About The Total Portfolio Approach?
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists argue the total portfolio approach (TPA) is less a novel strategy than an amalgamation of strategic asset allocation (SAA) best practices. No single ruleset defines the TPA. Our colleagues instead describe a suite of…
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Trading Bonds On Vibes
Our GeoMacro strategists see the long-dated Treasury selloff as a story about vibes rather than technical factors. Unorthodox US policy and persistent supply shocks have given markets indigestion, with the tone the White House is setting on the Iran war…
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Don’t Fear 5% Treasury Yields
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists remain overweight equities, arguing that investors overestimate the threat current interest rate levels pose to equities and the economy. Even with the long end rising, the gap between high-yield borrowing costs and…