Insights

President Trump imposed tariffs on the world in his first 100 days, as we expected. Tariffs may have catalyzed a recession in the US, given the weakness in consumer sentiment and demand. Trump will soon backpedal and grant exemptions to countries that are negotiating, which he will showcase as proof...

Equities will find a bottom when the full effects of tariffs on earnings and economic growth are priced in. The bottom of the market appears a long way away, and the S&P 500 may end up as low as 4,300, barring any reversals in trade policy that could undo the damage....

Going into this year, I was by far the most bearish strategist in the Bloomberg survey. A number of clients have reached out to me asking if I plan to change my end-year price of 4450 for the S&P 500 in light of recent events. The answer is “no,” since recent events have unfolded broadly in line...

Commodity prices are succumbing to the risk-off environment triggered by President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement. The latest events and market moves raise several important questions about the outlook for commodity markets.In this Strategy Report we address some of the most pressing questio...

The stimulus measures driving the post-COVID expansion were beginning to wane after five years and pointing the economy in the direction of an organically occurring recession. Now that DOGE and the multi-front trade war have sped up the timetable, we reiterate our risk-off recommendations....

Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European assets when the dust settles....

This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades....

This week, our three screeners cover: Equity plays in Low Vol & Low Beta outside the US; Chinese stocks; and stocks that are buys according to the PEG ratio. ...

The March employment report showed strong job growth, but the labor market remains in a fragile state and the demand shock from tariffs could be the catalyst that tips it over the edge into recession. ...