Insights

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh wants to make Fed-watching great again. The Warsh Fed will speak less and guide less. There is, however, an important nuance to the communication changes so far. While explicit guidance was removed, some implicit guidance remains, as inflation was prioritized over employmen...

The USD has moved sideways this year, but its behavior has become more defensive since the Iran war began. After fears of a USD “exodus” last year, the dollar has instead acted as a safe-haven during the Iran war. The DXY’s correlation with implied volatility has also increased since the start of th...

Mixed labor and inflation data should create a window for the Warsh Fed to keep rates on hold. We recently highlighted an important nuance to the communication changes so far: explicit guidance is removed, yet implicit guidance remains. The Warsh Fed will also aim to take more guidance from markets....

After an exciting group stage, we discuss the trends that have shaped the tournament and update our 2026 World Cup prediction....

How should I hedge my portfolio for the next bear market? This is a question many of our clients face, and one that investors too often answer on the basis of intuition or narrative. The All-Defense Chartpack aims to provide a solid starting point for that analysis, grounded in empirical data. It ex...

The equity bull market is getting long in the tooth. Bonds should perform well once economic growth begins to slow. The dollar will strengthen over the coming months before resuming its downtrend. While crude has likely found a near-term floor, we favor metals over energy in the long run....

We discuss what recommendations to expect from the Fed’s balance sheet task force. We conclude that any future balance sheet consolidation will be smaller than many anticipate....

Section I maps how the broad distribution of wealth gains is supporting US consumption. Section II examines how countries can meet swelling electricity demand. The winners will find paths to build the infrastructure needed to power the high-tech future....

China holds a structural advantage in this "Age of Electricity" by operating the world's largest electricity system. However, this advantage has inherent limits, and the US remains competitive despite its challenges....