Macro Investment Insights & Market Commentary

The dollar has had a strong run but its key supports from Fed repricing, positioning, and terms of trade are starting to fade. We close our tactical long USD positions and turn to short USD/JPY, where intervention risk makes yen shorts look increasingly dangerous....

Webcast Replay

Noah Holds Barred: The US Expansion Continues – But At What Price?

Hosted By: Noah Weisberger, Chief US Equity Strategist

Moderated By: Jason Glazer, Senior VP, Sales

The US economy is back in Expansion, with growth positive and improving, and US equities continue to climb on the back of a firming cycle and AI-related drivers. Fundamentals still look firm: earnings expectations are rising, margins are expanding, and corporate commentary points to durable demand. But sticky inflation, higher rates, tighter financial conditions, and a coming wave of monster IPOs raise the bar for valuations.

Key topics discussed:

Expansion extends: what the cyclical indicators are signaling now
Capex, cash flow, AI: the boom/bubble debate, and why free cash flow matters
Beyond tech: where AI demand and infrastructure needs are showing up next
Earnings and margins: how much support is still coming from fundamentals
Rates and valuations: why this may be the real constraint
IPO supply: what 40 years of data suggests about forward returns
Tactically, oil price relief is a reason for cyclical exposures and laggards to get a look: Long Materials, Long Consumer Cyclicals

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A ‘Gangnam Style’ Korean Equity Tantrum

Korea’s recent equity market tantrum is a warning signal for global risk assets. We are booking profits on the long Asian semiconductor stocks / short US hyperscalers trade and downgrading Korea from overweight to neutral in an EM equity portfolio....

Webcast Replay

Noah’s Basket Case: Episode 1 - June Swoon: What Are Markets Saying, What Are We Seeing

Hosted By: Noah Weisberger, Chief US Equity Strategist

Moderated By: Jason Glazer, Senior VP, Sales

Key Topics Discussed:

A 2H2026 update of our outlook: Fundamentals vs. fears
What are our baskets telling us: Rotation not regime break
Growth ascendant: Inflation fears contained
Tactically long consumer (on the back of oil price relief)

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The AI Hedge Nobody Sees Coming

AI dominates markets, but concentration is risk. Real Estate is the diversifier. It outperformed during the Dot-Com bust and will do so again if the AI trade unwinds. Even Office, the sector arguably most exposed to AI disruption, will prove more resilient than bears expect....

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Churn ‘Em And Burnham

Stay overweight gilts despite renewed political turmoil in the UK....

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Japan, El Niño Hedges, And US Consumer Resilience

In this screener report, we explore opportunities in Japanese Non-TMT equities, El Niño hedges, and US consumer-facing equities....

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To 8100 And Beyond: Returns Will Need To Be Earned

The economy has shifted into Expansion, earnings growth is broader and stronger than we expected, and we are raising our 2026 S&P 500 target to 8100 on $330 of EPS. However, we are also cutting our year-end multiple to 24.5. From here, returns will need to come from earnings growth, not multiple...

Webcast Replay

Strait Talk: Economic Impacts Of Hormuz Going Forward

Please join Chief Strategists Matt Gertken and Mathieu Savary for a Webcast.

Mathieu and Matt discussed:

The US-Iran deal and next steps in trying to resume global commodity flows.
The impact of energy prices on global demand, inflation, and interest rates so far.
Different scenarios for commodity prices and economic impacts going forward.
How the market is likely to respond to these scenarios – and what could go wrong.
What other geopolitical and macro risks and opportunities are looming in H2 2026?

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Tight Credit Spreads, K-Shaped Corporates?

Corporate health remains supportive of tight credit spreads in both the US and Europe, but a growing divide is emerging beneath the surface. Investment-grade issuers continue to strengthen, while lower-rated borrowers face mounting pressures. Credit markets are pricing resilience, leaving investors ...