Insights
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Since 2018, we’ve published what we call “The Most Important of All Unimportant Forecasts” – applying the same macro framework we use for markets and the global economy to predict the World Cup. Now, what started as a one-off idea has become a tradition.
We hosted a webcast to walk through the making of the report – how the model has evolved, how we combine quantitative analysis with macro and narrative insights, and why football turns out to be a surprisingly good lens for top-down thinking.
We also shared our final tournament prediction – and attendees will hear it first.
What we covered:
•How the report started – and how it’s improved each cycle
•The blend of data, narrative, and macro behind the model
•Why football lends itself to a top-down framework
•Our final 2026 World Cup call (revealed live)
Please join Chief Strategists, Matt Gertken, Roukaya Ibrahim and Robert Timper for a Strait Talk Webcast.
Tuesday, June 2
11:00 AM EDT | 4:00 PM BST | 5:00 PM CEST
Matt, Roukaya, and Robert will discuss:
- How the US and Iran will continue to negotiate even as they exchange military strikes.
- How a ceasefire through June and July may only partially restart shipping, but could delay inventory drawdowns in oil markets.
- How the outlook for the oil price impacts central bank policy and what this means for global bond yields.
- How gold should respond going forward, after a period of decline despite geopolitical crisis.
