Insights
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Insight
Our Global Investment strategists argue that AI could be as transformative as the Agricultural or Industrial Revolutions, but carries existential medium- to long-term risks. Both prior revolutions lifted GDP growth more than 30-fold versus the preceding epoch, and AI may prove similarly powerful.&nb...
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Insight
Our DM ex-US strategists make the case for the Eurobond as a structural necessity. The ECB has expanded EUREP (its global euro liquidity facility) to lay the groundwork for currency internationalization, but liquidity infrastructure without a deep pool of risk-free collateral achieves little. Euro-d...
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Insight
The April FOMC minutes clarified the hawkish shift that marked the meeting. The Fed held at its last meeting, but there were four dissents. While Governor Miran favored a 25 bps cut, regional presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan supported a hold but voted against the easing bias in the statement....
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Webcast Replay
Chief Strategists Matt Gertken and Roukaya Ibrahim and Jesse Kuri discussed:
- Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping agreed to expand their trade truce, as both face challenges, not least in the Strait of Hormuz.
- But China is not yet willing to apply pressure on Iran to enable shipping to resume in the strait. Only the US and Iran have the physical power necessary to resume shipping.
- Trump's attempt to negotiate a quick deal with Iran has not borne fruit, though negotiations are not yet dead.
- Faltering diplomacy implies a new round of hostilities over the coming days and weeks.
- Hormuz is likely to remain shut and attacks will likely increase over the coming month.
- In late June the world will start to hit constraints from physical oil inventory drawdowns.
- The global economy will increasingly see demand destruction as a result of elevated commodity prices.
- Global financial markets are increasingly disconnected from the underlying threat to the economy.
Report
AI could be as transformative as the Agricultural or Industrial Revolutions. However, the fact that you are reading these words at the dawn of the AI age hints at a darker possibility, which is that AI will lead to humanity's demise. Fortunately, the most straightforward interpretation of quantum me...
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Webcast Replay
Jeremie and Robert discussed:
- Has the energy shock caused irreversible damage to the European economy?
- Central banks so far refrained from hiking. Will they continue to stay put?
- How is the energy shock affecting Europe relative to the US? What are the equity, fixed income, and currency implications?
Report
In this month’s Beta Report, we assess what that structural tension means for investors under two distinct scenarios. In our base case – a multipolar world order – Australia's position turns out to be more advantageous than it appears. The great power capital expenditure race generates demand for pr...
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Webcast Replay
In this webcast Ryan discussed the outlook for US inflation and consider whether rising consumer prices will force the Fed to hike rates in the coming months. The Webcast addressed the following questions:
- Will the oil price shock have only a temporary impact on US inflation, or will it send consumer prices sustainably higher?
- Is the US labor market heating up or cooling off?
- What economic scenarios would push the Fed toward rate hikes or rate cuts?
- Which US fixed income sectors stand to profit from an extended period of on-hold Fed policy?