Insights

Euro area and Chinese interest rates must fall much further to prevent monetary policy from becoming ultra-restrictive. But Trump’s attempts to force unwarranted rate cuts from the Fed risks a vicious backlash from the bond vigilantes....

Beijing’s supply-side push faces steeper hurdles than in 2016. With limited demand support and tighter constraints on cutting capacity, today’s reforms are unlikely to pack the same punch....

Despite macro headwinds, the OBBBA clearly favors Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary equity sectors. A carefully constructed, factor-aware basket in these sectors is well positioned to outperform in a fiscal-driven, uncertain environment. ...

We discuss the implications of this morning’s CPI report and the relative attractiveness of 2/5 Treasury curve steepeners....

Disinflation continues to unfold globally, and markets are finally catching up. Inflation expectations have broadly realigned with fundamentals, prompting us to shift our global ILB allocation to neutral. While tariff risks are inflating US expectations, pricing in the UK, Japan, and Australia has a...

A potential right-wing government in 2027 will not stabilize the trajectory of the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Unsustainable public debt, a large current account deficit, and a sharp growth slowdown will lead Brazilian markets to underperform EM. Yet, to benefit from a quickly decelerating economy, we...

We still believe a recession looms, but it has yet to rear its ugly head. We continue to recommend investors position defensively, but we will change tack if clear signs of a recession don’t emerge soon....

EUR/USD is in a multi-year bull market. A short-term pause is likely, but the longer-term trend remains higher toward 1.25, and eventually 1.40....

This week our three screeners identify equity plays on copper prices, stocks that are considered “boring” but are solid earners during heightened uncertainty, and stocks which are positively correlated with Bitcoin.   ...

The pace of global political change is not unprecedented, but it is accelerating, driven by demographic forces as well as failures of conventional military deterrence. ...